Hey Big Stuff!
Decisions. Decisions.
Last weekend, getting into the complex at the BNP Paribas Tennis Open near Palm Springs, my group of four found ourselves needing to make a lot of decisions with an unsatisfying amount of information to guide us.
Should we drive or take the shuttle from the hotel? We opted to drive. We had a lead on a parking lot that was ‘easy in, easy out’. Problem: some vague instructions as to where that parking lot was - “It’s between the 111 and the courts. You can’t miss it.” True, we saw it , but how the heck do you get in!?
After circling the entire complex, passing lot after lot that was reserved for parking pass holders, we finally found it (at least I think that was it) and parked. Now, to get into the complex. Where do we go?
We spotted a looooong line snaking around the cars. And when I say long, imagine a 1⁄4 mile or so. We had VIP passes. Surely that can’t be for us. Let’s just go all the way to the front of the line and ask where the VIP entrance is. No luck – we were directed back to the now longer long line. Curses!!
What’s the point? It’s that we almost always have to make decisions without all the information.
I started my career in research. I’m a total data nerd. But too often, I find myself needing to give advice to a client despite not having as much data as I’d like.
In situations like this there’s a few things you can do.
- Gather anecdotes. Talk to as many stakeholders and industry experts as you can. Anecdotes can provide you with valuable insights into the situation and help you to identify potential risks and opportunities.
- Look for leading indicators. Leading indicators are metrics that can help you predict future trends. For example, if you're trying to decide whether to launch a new product, you might look at leading indicators such as search engine traffic for related keywords or the number of people following your company on social media.
- Imagine multiple scenarios. Once you've identified some leading indicators, you can start to imagine multiple scenarios for the future. For example, we’re doing positioning for a client right now where we don’t have enough data to confirm our hypotheses about their “best fit customer”. So, we’re creating two different positioning scenarios: one where we’re right, one where we’re wrong.
- Make small and medium-sized bets. When you're making a strategic decision without much data, it's often best to make small and medium-sized bets. This will allow you to test your ideas without putting all of your eggs in one basket. Continuing my example from above. In this case we’re proposing a few small bets to test both scenarios. These small bets are designed to be indicative while not requiring tremendous effort or money.
A recent article in Harvard Business Review also has a few things to say about this, which you can check out here.
Here’s the thing though. You will need to make judgment calls. And the best way to do that is to have a guiding strategy. And the funny thing about a strategy is that it’s really a story.
A strong company story acts like a compass when the data-driven map is incomplete. It keeps you oriented towards your north star: your core values, your long-term goals, and the kind of impact you want to make in the world.
Imagine you're hiking in unfamiliar territory. Sure, a map is helpful, but it can't show you everything - hidden trails, sudden drop-offs, or the secret vista waiting just behind a stand of trees. Your compass, however, can keep you pointed in the right direction, even when the path gets tricky.
In the same way, a clear company story helps you make decisions that are aligned with your overall vision . . . even when perfect data isn't available.
Take a moment to think about your own company's story – does it help guide your choices when data is lacking?
Direction over perfection, my friend. (Speaking of which, you won't believe how we finally found our way into the tournament! It involved crossing into another side of the parking lot and then jumping the line near a porta potty ... but let's save that story for another time.)"
Announcements!
In April I’ll be keynoting at the 5th Annual Women In Finishing Forum in Orlando, FL along with 9 other powerful women. I’ll be talking about The Winning Formula of Performance, Image and Exposure.
And, in May I’ll be speaking with the Society of Petroleum Engineers about narrative as a catalyst for change. All are welcome to that free talk. ✅ No registration or login required, just copy the meeting details to your calendar and join! https://lnkd.in/gHFBxS5H
As always, thanks for reading to the end!
